I’ve talked a lot about how much it takes to retire and safe withdrawal rates and ways to increase safe withdrawal rates. See the series of posts here. All of these discussions and studies I reference are based on a certain retirement model. Lets call it the portfolio value retirement model. One critical assumption in that model is that it…
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The early warning retirement indicator
I haven’t talked about safe withdrawal rates (SWR) in a while. For earlier discussions on what the SWR is on how to use it in retirement see the series of posts here. The SWR basically determines what is the maximum a retiree can withdraw from their portfolio every year and make sure the portfolio lasts through their entire retirement. One…
Death by bonds
I’m not a huge fan of investing in bonds, although I do invest in them from time to time. In general, their prospective returns are lower than stocks, they’re taxed at marginal income rates, and individual bond issues are harder to research/buy/trade than individual stocks. However, the most surprising reasons that I’m not a bond fan are; they don’t make…
A non forecast 2011 Outlook??
Huh? Why the question mark in the title of this post you may ask? Well, it has to do with my thoughts on forecasts. This time of year is one of the more entertaining. Slews of economists, investment strategists, and research houses put out there forecasts for market performance in 2011. I find this to be one of the more…
The worst times to retire in history
The safe withdrawal rate (SWR) that I’ve discussed in several posts (here, here, here) is a great tool to use for retirement planning and once in retirement. I’ve presented a range of SWRs from the super conservative 4% that has worked 100% of the time to the slightly more aggressive 5.25% which takes a bit more risk and requires some…
Happy Holidays and Thank you!
Happy Holidays! Just wanted to drop a quick post with some great links and thoughts for the end of the year. But first I wanted to give a big thank you to all my readers. As I approach my 8th year of writing this blog I have a lot to be thankful for. It’s been quite a journey so far…
Economic pulse investment model backgrounder
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Poor future returns and the safety first approach
In today’s post I want to address another approach to dealing with the prospect of poor future returns. In my last post I described the prospect of poor future returns and different risk-based portfolio strategies in such an environment. Today I’ll consider an alternative. The alternatives are various dedicated income approaches that put the retirement income stream at the top…
Revisiting the worst times to retire in history (2014 update)
Time for another one of those yearly updates. In this post I’ll update the data for the worst times in history to retire by adding 2014 data to the 4 worst retirement portfolios in history. See here for last year’s update. The worst time to retire since 1929 turns out not to be the Great Depression, as most people would…
Maybe you should be in 100% cash
This post has nothing to do with asset prices, valuation, or timing the market as the title may have led you to believe. It has to do with investor psychology and behavior. Over the years I’ve wondered if certain types of people would be happier if they didn’t invest in anything but cash. Not ‘better off’ mind you just happier and…
Using dividends to cushion against market gyrations
Early in 2013 I presented a quantitative strategy based on dividend paying stocks from OShaughnessy’s What Works On Wall Street. The Enhanced Dividend Yield strategy. The strategy provides market beating returns, higher sharpe ratios, and a healthy dividend stream. One of the best things about this strategy is it’s high stick-to-it-iveness. That’s a highly technical financial term that means that…