TAA Investing


Here are the tactical asset allocation updates for December 2015. All portfolio updates are online as part of  Paul’s GTAA 13 Portfolio New  sheet.

First, for the basic portfolios – the GTAA5 and the Permanent Portfolio. No changes for GTAA5. For the timing version of the Permanent Portfolio SHY went to cash which is basically no change.

Screen Shot 2015-11-30 at 7.05.47 PM

Now for the more aggressive GTAA AGG3 and AGG6 portfolios. Below is the snapshot of all the 13 asset classes.

Screen Shot 2015-11-30 at 7.04.37 PM

No changes for AGG3 this month. For AGG6, VCIT replaced VGIT and 33% of the portfolio is in cash just like last month.

Performance for the portfolios so far this year is in the table below. Numbers are for each month. The figures are estimates taken from a variety of sources. I don’t do detailed performance tracking until the end of the year.

Screen Shot 2015-11-30 at 7.05.21 PM

I did notice some performance differences for the portfolios depending on which source I was looking at for the data. I’ll see what the data says over the next few days and update the table accordingly.

If you’re a fan of the  Antonacci dual momentum  GEM and GBM portfolios, there were no changes this month. I’ve also made my  Antonacci tracking sheet  shareable so you can see the portfolio details for yourself.

That’s it for this month. These portfolios signals are valid for the whole month of December. As always, post any questions you have in the comments.

Note: At the end of this year I will be switching the main data source for the AGG3/6 portfolio updates from Yahoo Finance to FINVIZ. FINVIZ provides much faster data updates and allows me to go to a spreadsheet format with data that is valid daily. You can see the sheet I will be switching to here .

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4 thoughts on “ Tactical asset allocation – december 2015 update

  1. Hi Paul,

    Trust you are doing well. Was just doing some research at StockCharts.com and looking at the S&P sectors.

    From 1/2/15 through 12/4/15 here is a quick snapshot of YTD returns:
    – S&P 500 ($SPX) 1.63%
    – Cyclicals (XLY) 12.93%
    – Technology (XLK) 7.79%
    – Con Staples (XLP) 4.66%
    – Health Care (XLV) 4.00%

    Within S&P, Industrials, Materials, Energy and Utilities have drug down over all returns to 1.63%. Have you looked at using the Tactical Asset methodology to better invest within the S&P, taking advantage of the sectors that are positive? Seems we are potentially leaving positive returns on the table if we are not looking at the S&P sectors as part of our Tactical Asset investing strategy. Thoughts?


    1. Yeah, I’ve looked at a sector rotation strategy but honestly the results don’t seem to have anything really great over something like AGG3 for an overall diversified portfolio strategy. A US sector rotation strategy, for me, has to compete with something like an individual stock quant strategy, like Consumer Staples Value, which in my testing beats it handily. Just my 2 cents…


  2. Hi, Paul.

    Thanks so much for making all of this available! I just have a few questions, if you don’t mind.

    1. The top table says, “IVY 5 and GTAA 5 Portfolio,” but the “2015 Performance Tracker” table has different results for each of those. How could that be? How are they different?

    2. Also on the “2015 Performance Tracker” table, what is meant by the entry labeled, “GAA, Proxy for GMP”?

    3. Do the results include dividends, or capital gains only?

    Thanks again,
    Steve W

    1. IVY5 is buy and hold, GTAA5 uses the 200 day SMA filter.

      GAA is an ETF (Faber) that invests in the market weighted global market portfolio, the only true passive portfolio.

      Yes, the results I post always include dividends.


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