And there goes January. That was sure quick. There were a few developments over January in a few of the tactical asset allocation portfolios so let’s get right to it. Here is the February 2015 tactical asset allocation update. As of this month all the data is coming from new versions of my Google spreadsheets which are updating correctly. Glad those issues are behind me. Also, this month I’m adding some more commentary to the recent portfolio developments so investors get a feel in real-time for the changes happening in the various portfolios.
Starting with the most basic portfolios, below are the February updates for the GTAA5 and the Permanent Portfolio. These portfolios are now part of the main Paul’s GTAA 13 Portfolio New sheet. Just thought it would be easier to have all of these in one place.
There was no change for the GTAA5 portfolio from the January update. In the Permanent Portfolio IAU went on a buy signal, for those rare few who choose to time the Permanent Portfolio. VTI is getting closer to it’s 200 day SMA. Also, VNQ and IEF continue their strong trends with further increases over their 200 day SMAs. Commodities did even worse this month falling even further below their moving average.
Now for the GTAA AGG3 and AGG6 portfolios. I’m not tracking GTAA13 here in the monthly posts anymore but all the information for that portfolio is in the online spreadsheet for those interested.
There were no changes for the GTAA AGG3 portfolio. VGLT, VNQ, and MTUM continue to be the top 3 ETFs, although MTUM is struggling with the recent US market weakness. AGG6 had some big changes this month. 50% turnover this month. The bottom 3 ETFs all changed. The three new ETFs for AGG6 this month are IAU, VCIT, and VGIT. Gold, IAU, was one of the strongest performing ETFs this month and is moving up the ranks.
As far as performance goes, I’ve decided to keep track of the performance of the main portfolios on a monthly basis. It will make my life easier at the end of the year and I think it gives investor a better feel how these portfolios behave over time. Below are the January performance numbers for the portfolios and some benchmarks. AGG3 is leading the pack at the end of January with the Permanent Portfolio also doing quite well.
If you’re a fan of the Antonacci dual momentum GEM and GBM portfolios, GEM continues to be invested in US stocks (VTI), and the bond momentum option of the GBM portfolio continues to be invested in US long term gov’t bonds (VGLT). Since these portfolios are based on 12 month returns there is a long way to go before they signal any change. I may put up a spreadsheet soon that automatically tracks these portfolios.
That’s it for this month. These portfolios signals are valid for the whole month of February. As always, post any questions you have in the comments.