Portfolio , TAA Investing


Yesterday was the last trading day of the month of October. Time to update the IVY timing portfolio signals. This post updates the signals for the basic IVY 5 asset class timing portfolio, also known as GTAA 5.

You can see the signals at  world beta  or at  dshort  as well. I have my own tracking spreadsheet on-line as well. Below is a snapshot of this month’s signals.

IVY October 2013 signals


You can see the spreadsheet on line  here . The spreadsheet updates daily but remember that only the prices at the end of the month are used to generate buy/sell signals. I also have a version of the basic IVY that uses different ETFs for the commodities (GSG in place of DBC) and bonds (VGIT in place of IEF) portions of the portfolio. GSG and VGIT have slightly lower fees than their counterparts. Also, note that due to the different composition of the ETFs the buy/sell signals may be different.

For this month the real estate ETF, VNQ, went back on buy signal in both portfolios. The portfolios are now 60% invested and 40% in cash.

For previous posts on the basics of the IVY timing model and its performance see  here  and  here . There are also posts on extensions to the basic IVY portfolio to include more asset classes ( here ) and some more aggressive models ( here ). Finally,  this  post discusses fees, commissions, and taxes.

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3 thoughts on “ IVY Portfolio October 2013 Signals

  1. Are you still blogging? This is the last post I have received from you. I pray everything is okay with you and your wife. Blessings, Dick Yalmokas

  2. Hi,

    I’ve been timing the following allocation in a Schwab account:

    SCHX 1/12th Large Cap Equity (In) [Commission Free]
    SCHA 1/12th Small Cap Equity (In) [Commission Free]
    SCHF 1/12th Foreign Equity (Out) [Commission Free]
    SCHE 1/12th Emerging Equity (Out) [Commission Free]
    SCHR 1/12th Mid-term Fixed Income (In) [Commission Free]
    PCY 1/12th Emerging Fixed Income (Out) [Comission Free]
    SCHH 1/12th Domestic Real-Estate (In) [Commission Free]
    WOOD 1/12th Global Timber (In) [Comission]
    GCC 1/12th Commodity Basket (Out) [Comission]
    SGOL 1/12th Gold (Out) [Commission Free]
    PSP 1/12th Private Equity (Out) [Comission]
    DBV 1/12th Currency Hedge (Out) [Comission]

    …I’m concerned that I may have split the allocation into too many ETFs. The majority of my holdings are currently in cash, which feels strange in an accumulation-phase retirement account. What do you think of the above allocation?

    I had been happy with a Permanent Portfolio for some time, but bitcoin’s tenacity has made me question my large gold holding. Still, the beauty of PP’s rebalance bands and buy and hold had me thinking a lot less about my portfolio.

    1. Gary, what model are you following with your allocation? It looks similar to the GTAA 13 allocations but with some significant differences. 12 is quite a few ETFs but not a crazy amount, as long as they’re cheap. My only comment about your allocation is that it seems to be making a very active bet on ‘alternative investments’ – commodities, gold, PE, currencies, with a 42% allocation to these investments. This is quite a bit more than any allocation that I know.

      Outside your allocation decision, you seem to be using moving average system on the portfolio. Assuming your using the 10 mo SMAs to enter or exit the ETFs the % of cash you have is not surprising. Currently GTAA13 is 45% in cash. Foreign markets and pretty much all commodities are below their 10 mo SMAs so the system is doing what its supposed to do. The MA systems are meant to try and keep you in up markets and out of down markets. If this makes you uncomfortable then you shouldn’t run these systems. They are working as advertised.

      The Permanent Portfolio is definitely easier to implement. Its 4 ETFs and you re-balance once a year. Simple. Of course, you could also run GTAA 13 or even your above allocation as buy and hold as well. Pretty simple as well. If the simplicity of buy and hold appeals to you and the way you emotionally handle your investments then maybe that’s what you should do. You just need to be aware and prepared for the downsides.

      Personally, since all systems perform differently during different time periods, I don’t like running just one system. But that’s just me. We all need to find an approach that works for us.


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