Here is the very quick version of the tactical asset allocation update for Oct. Signals are valid for until the end of the month.
Below is the snapshot for the AGG3, AGG6, and GTAA13 portfolios. The source data can be found here .
One change for AGG3. VBK replaces VNQ. Two changes for AGG6. IAU and VEA replace VNQ and VGLT.
For the Antonacci dual momentum GEM and GBM portfolios, GEM remains in SPY, and the bond portion of GBM is in CRED. The Antonacci tracking sheet shareable so you can see the portfolio details for yourself.
The Bond 3 quant model , see spreadsheet , ranks the bond ETFs by 6 month return and uses the absolute 6 month return as a cash filter to be invested or not. The Bond 3 quant model remains invested in JNK, VGLT, and EMB. No changes.
A brief look at performance for Sept is below. Another sideways month overall.
And approximate performance for 2016 so far. Diversified portfolios continue to do well.
Also, the next unemployment figures will be released Friday October 7th. Unless the unemployment rate goes up by 0.1% or more there will be no change to the unemployment rate indicator. I’ll update this post at that time. I will also post on the Q3 2016 quant model performance in the next few days.
Update: The Sept unemployment rate (UER) was released Friday morning, Oct 7th. The UER ticked up to 5.0% bringing it above the 12 mo SMA. This triggers the first portion of the UI-200 day SMA timing system (see here ). The second and final trigger would a close below the 200 day SMA for the SPY which we are still about 5% away from.