This post is a follow up to my last post on the pain factor in TAA strategies. In that post I compared the various TAA strategies by three common pain points that I hear from investors; taxes, number of trades, and turnover. In this post I want to incorporate the reward of TAA strategies into the rankings. Let’s dive in.…
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An alternative way to look at risk in TAA strategies
In today’s post I want to take a look at an alternative measure of risk in portfolios, the Ulcer Performance Index, and use it to rank the various TAA and buy and hold strategies. First, let’s talk about the Ulcer Performance Index (UPI). The Ulcer Performance Index (UPI) is similar to the Sharpe ratio in that it is intended to…
A first look at 2019 portfolio performance
Happy New Year! It’s that time of the year to update portfolio performance statistics. It will take me a few more days to complete all my data gathering for TAA, Quant, and Buy and Hold Portfolios before I can do my usual Comparing Portfolio performance post for 2019. I’ll also be doing an update of my TAA batting averages post.…
Momentum: a different approach to buying stocks at the highs
An alternative title for this post could be, the internet rediscovers momentum and hates it, episode 5,000…. Meb Faber posted the other day on a strategy that buys stocks only at their all-time highs and otherwise holds bonds the rest of the time. The strategy has great risk-adjusted returns. It’s a great post, check it out. Also, AllocateSmartly put it…
Adding Zero Yield Assets to TAA Bond Strategies
Ok, one more bond post. I thought I was done with this little series of bond TAA posts but based on some feedback and some very astute questions from my subscribers I decided I needed to do one more. So, here is the basic question I received, “Aren’t you concerned about inflation, fiat currency debasement, etc, what about gold and…
Enhancing TAA bond returns with fixed income CEFs
This is my last post in the three part series on TAA bond portfolios before I get back to the equity side of things. Today I wanted to look at a way an investor can significantly increase returns in their bond strategies. The TAA strategy I’ll present below uses fixed income closed-end funds, and two factors – value and momentum…
Enhancing Returns of TAA Bond Strategies
Note: an enhanced version of this strategy, BOND-COMP, is now part of the Economic Pulse Newsletter Most tactical asset allocation strategies focus on equites. That’s completely understandable. They are the highest return asset class over the long run and that is where most of the TAA research has been done. The principle factor that most TAA strategies exploit, momentum, also…
Tactical Asset Allocation 1H 2019 Overview
Note: one of my posts from last year, When Models Fail, was chosen for Faber’s Best Investment Writing Volume 3. Check it out if you get a chance. Time to take a quick look back at 2019 YTD performance. In this post I present a quick overview of 1H 2019 Tactical Asset Allocation performance and make some brief observations. Let’s…
TAA Batting Averages: Calculating Base Rates for TAA Portfolios
In today’s post I want to look at long term TAA model performance in a different way. I think intuitively most investors realize that any strategy they pick will have periods of outperformance and underperformance. But decision making under real circumstances exposes us to all kinds of biases which often cause is to make intuitive, gut decisions based on incomplete…
TAA in 2018: another false trigger in the current bull market?
** All the return data for this post comes from AllocateSmartly, Portfolio123, and my own calculations. At the end of October many TAA strategies either triggered to completely risk-off or started moving towards risk-off assets. In today’s post I’m going to dive a little deeper into the TAA return data and compare some past periods that may or may not…
TAA: Using the US economy to Time Foreign Markets
Note: This is a modified version of an analysis I did for subscribers of the Economic Pulse Newsletter where I used the SPY-COMP indicator from the newsletter in world wide markets. Results for the SPY-COMP indicator are significantly better than the SPY-UI indicator presented in this post. One of the basic premises of several modern TAA strategies, is that the…