Retirement

Safe Withdrawal Rates – insist on 1966

Today I want to touch on a little understood aspect of safe withdrawal rates (SWRs) in retirement. Using the historical method to determine SWRs (as opposed to Monte Carlo analysis) means that the maximum SWR (approx 4%) is singularly determined by one 30 year period, the 30 year retirement period for the 1966 retiree. The 1929 Great Depression retiree had…

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Bonds

Pray for higher interest rates

OK. I know. I’m schizophrenic.  In my last post I’m telling you why I think interest rates will stay low longer than people expect. Now, I’m going to explain how rates could go higher and why I’m hoping they do. One of the things that makes investing a challenge is that you’re dealing with the future. As Yogi Bera so…

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Bonds

A contrarian view on interest rates

How many times a week do you read that interest rates have no where to go but up? That bonds are terrible investments and will be crushed by rising rates? And when was the first time you started to hear these stories? If you read pretty much any source of investment news then you’ve been hearing these stories for almost…

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Bonds , Retirement

Longevity insurance – not worth it

There was a recent post at the Times’ Bucks Blog about Longevity Insurance that caught my attention. I decided to run some numbers to see what returns are implied in the current prices of longevity insurance and compare that to the risks, and the alternative of just keeping your money and investing it yourself. Lets dive in. Longevity insurance seems…

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Bonds

Death by Bonds II

Here I go again. Bond bashing time. I think many income investors worried about risk mistakenly focus too much on the lower volatility of bonds as a risk measure. Volatility is only one measure of risk. On other measures of risk bonds perform just as poorly as stocks but with lower returns than stocks. Lets look at some of these…

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Economy , Retirement

A couple of thoughts on inflation

The holidays are here and its made posting a bit tougher. Its hard to work on a post with family members all around, left over turkey and pumpkin pie all over the place. Not that I am complaining. For today, I found a couple of interesting charts on inflation. Its hard to find a more controversial topic today than the…

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